Can the Toronto Blue Jays Catch the New York Yankees for the Top Spot in the AL East?
As of August 29th, 2022, the Toronto Blue Jays are 8 games behind the New York Yankees, meaning that the Jays have to win 8 more games than the Yankees for the remainder of the season. The Jays have 35 games remaining in the season while the Yankees have 33, giving the Jays a two game advantage to win those 8 games. Mathematically speaking, the Blue Jays can take the top spot in the East from the Yankees. Even though it can be done, there are other factors involved that should be considered when trying to predict whether the Blue Jays have a legitimate shot of beating out the Yankees.
In their last ten games, The Jays surprisingly have a better record than the Yankees. The Jays’ record in the last ten games is 6 - 4 while the Yankees is 5 - 5. Many people feel like the Jays have been struggling as of late because they were swept by a team with a significantly worse record, although the games leading up to that were encouraging for Jays fans. The Jays swept the Red Sox and won three out of four of the games they played against the Yankees.
It is difficult to assess how likely the Blue Jays are to actually beat out the Yankees because they are such a streaky team. Throughout their season, they have had many ups and downs which could affect their spot in the standings. It’s possible that the Jays will go on a winning streak to end the season, which they have done in the past. But with how inconsistent they have been all season, it may also end in a disappointing fashion.
As a realist, it’s very hard to believe that the Jays will actually give the Yankees a run for their money. The Jays are pretty far behind the Yankees, and they are the better team overall. Additionally, when looking at the teams from a statistical point of view it appears unlikely that the Jays will make it happen. The Blue Jays have a home game win percentage of 56.9% and an away win percentage of 51.6%. Meanwhile, the Yankees have a home game win percentage of 69.2% and an away win percentage of 51.5%. Based on the percentages the Yankees should win about 11 more home games and about 9 more away games this season and the Jays should win about 9 more home games and about 10 more away games this season. In total that amounts to 20 more wins on the season from the Yankees and 19 more wins by the Jays. From these numbers, the Yankees should finish with a win-loss record of 98 - 64 and the Jays should finish with a record of 88 - 74. So, even though mathematically it is possible for the Blue Jays to win top spot in the AL East, based on their team statistics it is clearly unlikely that this scenario will actually occur.