NFL Playoffs: The Underdogs
As the first playoff games of the 2022-2023 NFL season begin, many are looking ahead to Super Bowl LVII in Arizona. In the first game of the postseason, the San Francisco 49ers knocked out the Seattle Seahawks. It’s easy to look at the statistics and conclude that one of the regular season’s dominating teams will victoriously raise the Lombardi in February. The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals have all non-disputably had incredible seasons. However, what about the Jaguars of the league? The lower-seeded Jaguars came back to beat the Chargers 31-30 in their first playoff game this year. What are the chances of a lower-seeded team clinching the overall Super Bowl win?
Baltimore Ravens
10-7 wild cards
The Baltimore Ravens headed into the regular 2022-2023 season with three preseason victories, extending their preseason wins to 23 games, which is an NFL record. In their 15th year with head coach John Harbaugh the team went 10-7, an improvement from last season’s 8-9 record. The team struggled offensively this year, ranking in the bottom half of the league for points per game. However, they excelled defensively, allowing the third-fewest points scored against any team.
The biggest issue for the Ravens is that their star quarterback Lamar Jackson has been out with a knee injury and will be missing the playoffs. Jackson unanimously won the league’s MVP award in 2019 and led the Ravens to three consecutive playoff runs. His injury hurts the team’s Super Bowl chances drastically, and they have yet to announce who their starting quarterback will be in their playoff debut against the Bengals on January 15.
With their running back core returning from injuries in 2023, Ravens' odds are still strong and currently stand at +5000.
New York Giants
9-7-1 wild card
After going 4-13 in the 2021-2022 season, the New York Giants have made a huge leap by qualifying for the 2022-2023 playoffs. Brian Daboll’s first year as head coach has been groundbreaking, and many think he will win this year's NFL Coach of the Year Award. After starting the season with an impressive 6-1 record against teams like the Packers, Titans, and Ravens, many experienced the beginning of a huge comeback year. Although they struggled a bit toward the end of the season, the Giant’s defense has been consistently reliable under coordinator Don Martindale.
In 2019 quarterback Daniel Jones won the Giants franchise record for most rookie games started, and ever since then, he has been dramatically improving. This season he threw the third least interceptions in the league (five interceptions). Some claim him to be a top-5 quarterback, as him and running back Saquon Barkley have made a great duo on the field. Barkley, the 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, could not play significantly for two seasons due to ligament and ankle injuries. In the 2022-2023 season, he scored ten touchdowns and rushed 1,312 yards, ranking him sixth overall in the league for his position.
The New York Giants currently have a +6600 chance of winning the Super Bowl and take on the Minnesota Vikings on January 15.
Miami Dolphins
9-8 wild card
This year marks the Miami Dolphins' best start to a season since 2001 (8-3). Although they suffered a late-season losing streak and went winless in December, they tied their 9-8 record from last season and are heading into the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Led by new head coach Mike McDaniel, they had some admirable victories in the regular season, including a 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills and a 42-38 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Their offense improved greatly this year with the addition of Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead, with their team averaging 25 points and 395 total yards per game. However, their defense has lacked, allowing 24 points and 362 total yards a game for opposing teams.
The Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had an incredible season, including a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Baltimore Ravens in which he threw a career-high 469 yards and six touchdowns. However, after a big NFL protocol controversy in which a neurotrauma consultant was fired after allowing Tagovailoa to play after a concussion he received during a game, he was benched for weeks five and six. He returned in Week seven and finished the regular season, but on January 11, Mike McDaniel announced that Tagovailoa has not been cleared to play after a second concussion incident, and he will not be starting in the playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins' current Super Bowl standings are +10,000, and they play the Buffalo Bills on January 15.
Jacksonville Jaguars
9-8 division winner
In their first playoff game since 2017, the Jacksonville Jaguars made a 27-point comeback to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in the fourth quarter, making franchise history. This game summarizes their entire 2022-2023 season. After a slow 3-7 start with new head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars came back to win six of their final seven games and win the AFC South. They became the second team in NFL history to start a season 4-8 and still make the playoffs. The team ranked seventh overall for points scored this season, indicating a strong offense. Still, they ranked 28th in third-down defense, suggesting their defensive lines need significant work.
Starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence seemed to struggle at the beginning of the season, completing 57.8% of his passes during the Jaguars' 5-game losing streak. However, toward the end of the season, Lawrence began pushing for huge comeback wins. The Jaguars beat the Ravens 28-27 and defeated the Cowboys in overtime 40-34.
As the season went on, Lawrence completed 66.3% of his passes and demonstrated notable improvement. His performance in the playoff game against the Chargers, in which he put his team in position for the 36-yard winning field goal, furthermore reveals his potential. Other players to look out for are Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Christian Kirk.
The Jaguars move on to either play the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or Cincinnati Bengals in the next round of playoffs. Their current odds of winning the Super Bowl are +3500.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8-9 division winner
After superstar quarterback, Tom Brady reversed his retirement and came back to play for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2022-2023 season, expectations were high. Even though Rob Gronkowski did retire on June 21, 2022, the Buccaneers received a new head coach, Todd Bowles, and picked up many free agents. Last season they set a franchise record of 13-4, and although they could not beat this, they clinched the NFC South.
With this, the Buccaneers became the fourth team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. Although they managed to grab a spot in the postseason this year, their running backs have been very inconsistent, and their offense and defense have both seemed underwhelming.
Tom Brady is the face of the NFL, widely regarded as the greatest quarterback of all time. He has carried the New England Patriots and Buccaneers to a total of seven Super Bowl wins and ten appearances. He went 21 seasons straight without a losing record before the 2022-2023 season. This year he posted his first-ever eight-loss season as a starter. However, many think his playoff magic will work in the team's favor, especially as this may be his final playoffs ever.
The Buccaneers play the Dallas Cowboys on January 16, and currently, their chance of winning the Super Bowl stands at +3000.
Takeaways
Although dominating teams from the regular NFL season appear to have the best odds of victory, it’s safe to say some of the lower-ranked teams at least have a chance. There seems to be a common theme of new coaches and promising young stars in these teams, indicating that in seasons to come, they will blossom and grow. It’s always fun to root for the underdogs, and all eyes are anxiously watching for who will win come February 12, 2023.