Analysis of Trevor Zegras’s New Contract
After a long wait, the Anaheim Ducks finally announced they re-signed Trevor Zegras. The 22-year-old center signed a three-year deal with an AAV of $5.75 million. This article will analyze Zegras’s stats and determine if this was a good deal or if Zegras is worth a different amount.
To begin, let’s figure out his worth by using his goals above replacement (GAR) statistics. Zegras’s even-strength offense goals above replacement (EVO) is 8.5, meaning he scores 8.5 more goals above the average player on even-strength offense. Zegras’s powerplay offense goals above replacement (PPO) are .3, so he scores .3 more on the power play than an average player. Together, that makes his total offensive GAR (OFF), which is EVO+PPO, equal to about 8.7/8/8. His overall GAR is .6, and his overall WAR rating is .1 (Evolving-Hockey).
To use these numbers in order to get Zegras’s true salary value, his stats must be compared to other players with the same or similar numbers. Two players with the same OFF stats as Zegras include Mika Zibanejad, who plays for the Rangers, and Morgan Geekie, who will play for the Bruins this season. Zibanejad currently makes $8.5 million per year, and Geekie makes $2 million per year. Since these salaries are drastically different, we must use a combination of statistics to place value on Zegras.
In order to get more accurate data, we must find players with similar OFF, GAR, and WAR to Zegras. There are only two players that have similar stats to Zegras on these three analytics: Josh Anderson and Lawson Crouse. Anderson has an OFF of 8.8, a GAR of 1.5, and a WAR of .3. Crouse has an OFF of 8.1, a GAR of 1.6, and a WAR of .3. While Anderson and Crouse’s WAR and GAR are slightly higher than Zegras’s, they are still viable comparisons. Anderson currently makes $5.5 million per year, and Crouse makes $4.3 million per year. Something to keep in mind here, though, is that these players do have higher WAR and GAR stats than Zegras.
Some players with similar WAR and GAR stats to Zegras include Jack Roslovic and Vladimir Tarasenko. Both of these players have the same WAR and GAR stats as Zegras, but Roslovic’s OFF is 5, and Tarasenko’s is 2.5. Roslovic makes $4 million per year, and Tarasenko makes $5 million per year.
What makes Zegras have such a low GAR and WAR with his high OFF rating is that his Def rating, which is his total defensive GAR, is -7.9. Travis Konecny is a player with similar Def, WAR, and GAR to Zegras and a somewhat similar OFF. Konecny’s stats are GAR: .5, WAR: .1, OFF: 7, and Def: -7. Konecny is the most similar player to Zegras statistically, and he makes $5.5 million per year.
What all of these numbers tell me is that Zegras’s salary of $5.75 million per year is about even with his abilities compared to the league. This salary makes sense due to the most similar player being Konecny, and Zegras has slightly higher GAR and OFF statistics. I can now say confidently that the Anaheim Ducks and Trevor Zegras made the right choice with this deal.