How Much is Cole Caufield Worth?

After three years and a Stanley Cup final playoff run, Cole Caufield is finally done with his entry-level contract of $880,833 (capfriendly.com). The question that remains is how much the Canadiens’ top-line center is truly worth, and how on earth can a team with only $5 million in cap space and injuries afford to keep him?

To begin, let’s figure out his true worth by using his goals above replacement (GAR) statistics. Caufield’s even-strength offense goals above replacement (EVO) is 6.3, meaning he scores 6.3 more goals above average on even-strength offense. Caufield’s powerplay offense goals above replacement (PPO) are .3, so he scores .3 more on the power play than average. Together, that makes his total offense (Off) which is EVO+PPO, equal to about 6.6. His overall GAR is 4.4, and his overall WAR is .7 (Evolving-Hockey).

For these numbers to mean something, they must be compared to players with similar EVO, PPO, Off, GAR, and WAR. Players with similar Off statistics to Caufield include Jack Eichel and Caufield’s former teammate Tyler Toffoli. Eichel makes $10 million per year, and Toffoli makes $4.25 million per year. Since these numbers are so different, it shows that single stats won’t give us an answer, and we must find players with similar Off to Caufield but also share similar GAR and WAR.

A good player to compare Caufield to would be Alex Killorn. Killorn has an Off rating of 7.1, a GAR of 4.1, and a WAR of .7. Killorn makes $4.4 million a year on average. Another good comparison would be Rasmus Andersson, whose Off rating is 6.4, GAR is 4.9, and WAR is .8. Andersson makes $4.5 million on average per year. Dylan Strome is a player with a similar GAR (4.5) and WAR (.8) but a lower Off (4.2), and he makes, on average, $3.5 million per year. Claude Giroux has the same exact GAR and WAR stats as Caufield but has an Off of 4.2, and he makes $6.5 million on average.

Based on those numbers, I would place Caufield’s worth at about $5.3 million on average per year. The remaining issue, though, is how the Canadiens will pay for him. The Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes spoke to the media on the morning of January 18th and explained how “one thing is certain: [they] want Cole Caufield to be with [them] long term.”

Now that we know Cole is most likely staying in Montreal, it’s important to look at their cap space. As of January 18th, the Canadiens have about $5 million in cap space, with $13 million on their IR and $20 million in their LTIR. There is currently no room for Cole to get the pay he deserves. The only thing left to do is wait to see if Hughes can make enough moves to give Caufield a salary in the range of $4-6 million, and if he can’t, will Caufield take less than he deserves to stay on this team?