Is Mathew Barzal worth $73.2 Million

Mathew Barzal, the star forward for the New York Islanders, just signed a $73.2 million, 8 year deal, averaged at $9.15 million per year. This contract will make Barzal the highest paid Islander, and the 39th highest paid NHL player, but is he truly worth it?

In the 21-22 season, in his 73 games played, Barzal had 15 goals and 44 assists for a total of 59 points. Barzal had a +/- rating of -15, and spent an average of 18 minutes on ice per game. Barzal also led the team in points and assists, but took 4th on the team in goals. Compared to the whole league, Barzal’s 59 points landed him in 84th place and his 44 assists put him in 47th place league wide for assists. None of these statistics look too impressive considering the new deal, but let’s dive into some other metrics of evaluation.

According to Evolving-Hockey, in his 21-22 season Barzal’s GAR was a 3.9 and his WAR was a 0.7. To find values in these numbers, they can be compared to the GAR and WAR of players who will make a similar salary to Barzal. An important thing to keep in mind is these metrics value goals above replacement and wins above replacement, ultimately giving a numerical value to a players worth.

Players with similar salaries include Johnny Gaudreau, Mikko Rantanen, and Roman Josi. Gaudreau had a GAR of 31.3 and a WAR of 5.5, Rantanen had a GAR of 27.5 and a WAR of 5.5, and Josi had a GAR of 20.2 and a WAR of 3.5. When Barzal is compared to the value of other players with similar salaries, he is vastly below all of their metrics and is not worth as much. Following the meaning of GAR and its description of replacement, the GAR of Barzal could replaced by Ivan Barbashev, who has the same GAR, for only $2.25 million. Barzal’s WAR can also be replaced by Cole Caufield who has a WAR of 0.6 and is making $880,833 per year on his entry level contract.

Everything shows that while Mathew Barzal might benefit the Islanders and they wanted to keep him on the Island, $9.15 million is too much.