Are The Oilers Paying Too Much For Darnell Nurse?
On August 6th, 2021, the Oilers' General Manager, Ken Holland, secured Darnell Nurse for another eight years signing him to a contract worth $9.25 Million per year. Darnell Nurse was the Oilers’ seventh overall draft pick back in the 2013 NHL entry draft and has signed four contracts since—this being his biggest. Nurse has been a steady D-man averaging 23:58 TOI per game while also occupying part of the Oilers' top defensive pairing, usually alongside Cody Ceci.
The first season after the Hamilton-born defenseman signed his new contract, he put up 35 points in 71 games played. Those stats put him at 45th for overall points out of every defenseman in the NHL. There are so many other stats that we could look at to see if Darnell Nurse is worth $74 Million, but GAR and WAR help narrow it down. GAR and WAR show goals above replacement and wins above replacement which are stats that can show how much a player contributes to their team and their overall worth.
During the 21-22 season, Nurse had a 0.4 GAR and a 0.1 WAR per Evolving-Hockey. These numbers can be given more meaning by comparing them to numbers of other defensemen that have comparable contracts. For example, Roman Josi and Cale Makar make a little less than Nurse, while Adam Fox and Charlie McAvoy make a bit more. Josi had a 20.2 GAR and a 3.5 WAR, and Makar had a 22.9 GAR and a 4 WAR. Both of these players have substantially higher value, produced more points, and make less than Nurse. With that being said, Fox had a 16.2 GAR and a 2.9 WAR, and McAvoy had a 21.2 GAR and a 3.7 WAR. Even though these two players make more than Nurse, they only make a small fraction more, which means that their numbers should be a lot closer to Nurses.
Currently, in the 22-23 season, Nurse has a 1.9 GAR and a 0.3 WAR, which is moderately better, but the season has yet to conclude. Even though we cannot accurately analyze these numbers since the season isn't finished, the defenseman mentioned previously still have better numbers than Darnell Nurse. One thing that Oilers fans always mention about Nurse is his reputable ice time. Even though Nurse averages 23:58 TOI, 3/4 of defensemen with similar contracts have higher ice time.
Within his team, Nurse's GAR and WAR are slightly lower than Evan Bouchard, who is in the last year of his entry-level contract. Nurse is averaging around 5 minutes more TOI than Bouchard, which you can argue is a factor in Bouchard's stats being a bit better.
Nurse's stats are a cause for concern when he is being compared to defencemen with comparable salaries, so the Oilers have some thinking to do. His new contract isn't up until the 29-30 season, which is a considerable amount of time. Do the Oilers look into a trade, even though Darnell Nurse wants to stay loyal to his first team, or do they hope Nurse's production can increase to an acceptable level for his contract?