Off the Ice ft. Director of Hockey Analytics at the Columbus Blue Jackets
We all know that NHL teams use advanced statistics and analytics to help their team improve on the ice, but most are left in the dark about what truly happens off the ice. In an article last month, I described a player's perspective on how analytics are used and recently interviewed a different kind of expert on the topic.
Zac Urback, Director of Hockey Analytics at the Columbus Blue Jackets, spoke on statistics and analytics from an inside perspective. To first summarize his job, Urback explained that the goal was to “Integrate data and other forms of information to help [them] improve [their] decision-making process, whether that be with coaching, at the draft, trades, or free agents.”
One of the most important things that Urback emphasized, as the main purpose of his job, was to give others the opportunity to pass along information. He described this as “Building tools that help make the data more accessible or understandable to people in the organization.” This is a key role because not everybody has the same statistical knowledge and cannot understand the raw numbers as well as someone who captures them as a profession.
When asked about how much value Urback and the Blue Jackets place on the numerical values of analytics themselves, he described, “Statistics might capture, let's say, like 80% of the game, and so on average, you'll identify the right trends. You'll identify the right players and so on and so forth, but it's not 100% of the equation.” This is important in highlighting the importance of analytics, but also not forgetting that analytics are not the end-all-be-all. Urback described that other factors that need to be taken into account may include good or bad character, playing style, and other various reasons that make someone an outlier.
Another key point Urback explained was to understand a player’s purpose on their team. He explained that “You have to treat every player unique in the NHL. A big driver of player success is their roles, and you have to understand what their roles are, how well they fit in that role, if they are being misused in that role, and if they should be used somewhere else.” This idea of a specific role for players is important in various ways. For example, while a player might not be scoring a goal each night, their line could be creating momentum daily, and without him, they see a drastic change. Urback stressed the importance of player roles and ultimately connected it to player salary and signings.
When describing the process of player signings and trades, Urback noted there were three things that matter: market value, actual value, and intrinsic value. He explained market value as the league’s opinion on a certain player, and no matter whether or not you believe a player is worth what the league is saying, they will still get that amount. Actual value was described as how much a player is currently making. Lastly, intrinsic value was described as what the organization believed a certain player’s value is.
In my opinion, the most important thing Urback said about the business behind player salaries and trades is, “The goal of the NHL is to underpay as many good players as possible so that you have the best possible team.” While underpaying may sound bad to a player, the statement makes sense from a league perspective. The goal of using statistics as an organization is to find the hidden gems or the undervalued players and use that to your advantage.
As discussed in my previous article, statistics and analytics in hockey can be helpful to players and coaches with improvement, but those numbers are also a big part of what happens behind the scenes.